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Some notes concerning the prediction of the amplitude of the solar activity cycles
Authors:A. G. Tlatov
Affiliation:1.Kislovodsk solar station,The Central Astronomical Observatory of RAS at Pulkovo,Kislovodsk,Russia
Abstract:The parameter G, which is determined from the general number of sunspots groups N g according to the daily observations G=∑(1/N g )2, is offered. This parameter is calculated for the days when there is at least one sunspots group. It characterizes the minimum epoch solar activity. Parameter G mounts to the maximum during the epoch close to the minimal activity of sunspots. According to the data of the sequence of sunspots group in Greenwich–USAF/NOAA observatory format, observation data of Kislovodsk solar station and also daily Wolf number, the changes of parameter G during 100 years were reconstructed. It is demonstrated in the paper that parameter G’s amplitude in minimal solar activity n is linked with the sunspot cycle’s amplitude W n+1 or one and half cycles. The 24th activity cycle prediction is calculated, which makes W 24=135(±12).
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