冰川动力学模式及其对中国冰川变化预测的适应性

冰川动力学模式以其优越的物理过程描述能力,在冰川变化的预测研究中占有重要地位.其中“频率响应模式”、“剖面形状因子模式”和“冰流模式”较为成熟,并且具备对山岳冰川演变的模拟分析能力.从发展历史、主要利弊以及适用条件和范围几个方面,对上述3种模式进行了讨论,并对其在我国冰川上的运用前景进行了探讨.

Glacier Dynamic Models and Their Applicability for the Glaciers in China

Alpine glaciers are sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation.The shrinkage of alpine glaciers in the twentieth century is on a global scale.For a number of glaciers,the rate of shrinkage appears to have accelerated toward the end of the century.However,the current acceleration of glacier melting apparently has not been predicted by most glacier models.As glacier dynamic models perform satisfactorily for describing physical processes and long-term evolution of glaciers,they likely become a potential tool to reveal the current changes of Alpine glaciers.In this paper,developing history,application conditions,advantages and disadvantages of three dynamic models(frequencyresponse model,factor of profile model,and ice flow model) are discussed.The particular focus is on theirapplicability for the glaciers in China.It indicates that these models may be effective if more data,e.g.glacier mass balance,thickness,surface velocity,and temperature etc.are observed,especially on different kind of glaciers.GIS and remote sensing data can also be employed as supplementary.In addition,as a case study,different models have been applied to Glacier No.1 at headwater of Ürüqi River for its future variation predication.The result indicates that the response time of the glacier is in a magnitude of over one hundred year.The parameter optimizing,modeling processes and all outcomes are presented and discussed in this paper.