政策影响下上海市工业用地扩张与效益研究

2003 年以后，国家及上海市委、市政府相继出台一些遏制工业用地的粗放扩张政策，那么其控制成效如何，工业郊区化只是工业转移还是带来更好用地效益。针对这些问题，采用GIS空间分析、统计分析和边际效益建模等方法，探讨政策调控对上海市工业用地扩张的作用效果和对工业用地效益的影响，并提出相关政策建议。研究结果表明：上海市郊区工业用地扩张明显，空间上趋于分散，工业用地效益有所提升，但相比国外发达地区，仍存在较大差距；工业向园区集中的政策驱动效果明显，工业郊区化转移并未给中心城区工业带来衰败迹象，郊区工业也并未体现出相应实力，控制工业用地扩张政策效果不佳；工业用地边际效益分析发现，边际效益呈递减趋势，工业经济增长仍主要依赖于工业用地的增加，粗放型增长未得到有效改善。

Effects of Policy on Urban Industrial Land Expansion and Efficiency in Shanghai,China

After 2003, some control and guide policies of industrial land have been frequently introduced by China and Shanghai municipal government to contain the spread extensive expansion of industrial land. How is the control effect? Does industrial suburbanization just transfer or bring better land efficiency? Accordance with these problems, the methods of GIS spatial analysis, statistical analysis, marginal efficiency modeling and others are applied to discuss the effects of policy control on industrial land expansion and industrial land efficiency, and then some policy suggestions are given. The results demonstrate that suburb industrial land expansion is obvious in Shanghai and the spatial distribution trends to scatter, industrial land efficiency have improved, but there is still a wide gap compared with foreign developed areas; the driven effect of the industry to parks concentration policy is obvious, industrial suburbanization transfer does not make the industries in the central city declined, and the industries in the suburb does not reflect the corresponding strength, the effects of control policy on industrial land expansion is not good; the marginal efficiency of industrial land presents a decreasing trend by marginal efficiency analysis in Shanghai, and industrial economic growth is still mainly dependent on the increase of industrial land, extensive growth have not been improved effectively.