嘉陵江中下游地区近30年土地利用与 覆被变化过程研究

喀斯特石漠化问题是存在于喀斯特区的一种重要的地质-生态灾害。石漠化灾害的预警分析包括设计警标、明确警情、寻找警源、分析警兆和预报警度等；而石漠化灾害风险评估是在喀斯特石漠化预警分析的基础上，进行灾害危险性评价，结合易损性分析，进行期望损失评估，目的就在于评估和监测石漠化的演变状态与引起的不良环境效应。要构建一个具有操作意义的石漠化灾害预警与风险评估模型库系统，首先要建立一套合理的喀斯特石漠化灾害预警与风险评估概念化模型，据此来辩识石漠化的发育度，诊断潜势度，预警危险度，核算易损度和评估危害度。本文在于揭示脆弱的喀斯特生态环境系统的演变过程及其引起的石漠化灾害系统的成因机理与致灾过程，在此基础上，进行喀斯特生态安全预警和石漠化灾害风险分析指标体系；利用GIS技术与空间统计分析和数学模型，建立石漠化灾害风险评估模型，为我国西南喀斯特山区土地石漠化预警和灾害防治评估与不同类型石漠化区的可持续发展提供可借鉴的范例。

System Design of Early Warning and Risk Assessment Model for Karst Rocky Desertification Hazard

Karst rocky desertification problem is one kind of important geo-ecological calamity existing in the karst area. Early warming analysis of karst rocky desertification calamity include designing alarms, marking alarms condition, seeking the alert source, analyze alarm sign and forecasts the degree alarming etc. on the foundation of early warming analysis of karst rocky desertification, risk assessment of karst rocky desertification calamity is that carrying on calamity dangerous appraising, and combining analysis of damage, and hopes to lose to assessment, and the purpose depends on the development state to assess and monitors karst rocky desertification and bad environment effect that causes. Constructing to build Early Warning and Risk Assessment Model System for Karst Rocky Desertification Hazard,(KRDH.EWAMS), will firstly build that one set conceptualization model of logically and reasonable fitting calamity early warming and risk assessment for karst rocky desertification, on these grounds, differentiate the growth degree of karst rocky desertification, diagnose the latent power degree, and accounting business damage, assessing the harm degree, the early warming dangerous degree. On the basis of temporal-spatial change analysis and driving mechanism diagnosis on karst rocky desertification, this paper takes early warning and risk analysis on karst Rocky Desertification Hazard, designs Early Warning and Risk Decision Supporting System for Karst Rocky Desertification Hazard, makes up early Warning and risk models for karst Rocky Desertification Hazard, and provides scientific foundation for rational land use and prevent calamity in karst area.