| 海平面上升背景下上海市长江口水源地供水安全风险评估及对策 |
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| 引用本文： | 程和琴,塔娜,周莹,朱建荣,阮仁良,陈吉余. 海平面上升背景下上海市长江口水源地供水安全风险评估及对策[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2015, 11(4): 263-269. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.04.005 |
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| 作者姓名： | 程和琴 塔娜 周莹 朱建荣 阮仁良 陈吉余 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室，上海 200062；2 上海市水务局，上海 200050 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市科学技术委员会重大研究计划项目，国家海洋公益性项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析和甄别上海市需水系统和长江口水源地供水系统风险因子，建立基于水资源供需平衡的上海市水源地供水安全风险评估模型，并采用系统动力学预测模型和高分辨率非正交曲线网格移动潮滩边界的长江河口盐水入侵三维数值模型，分别计算分析2030年人口增长、径流减少和海平面上升等3种风险因子叠加作用下的上海市需水量与长江口陈行、东风西沙和青草沙3个水源地的可供原水量，并进行供需比较分析和供水安全风险评估。结果表明：在海平面分别上升10和25 cm、枯季平均径流和没有新增水源条件下，2020年的缺水量分别为39万和74万m3/d，特枯水文年供水能力降低19万m3/d；若新增没冒沙水源300万m3/d，可缓解上海市2020年的缺水状况。
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| 关 键 词： | 海平面上升 长江口水源地 供水安全 风险评估 供需平衡 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-12-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015-05-26 |
Risk Assessment and Adaptation of Fresh Water Supply in the Changjiang Estuary Impacted by Sea Level Rise in the Shanghai City |
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| Cheng Heqin,Ta Na,Zhou Ying,Zhu Jianrong,Ruan Renliang,Chen Jiyu. Risk Assessment and Adaptation of Fresh Water Supply in the Changjiang Estuary Impacted by Sea Level Rise in the Shanghai City[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones DE, 2015, 11(4): 263-269. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.04.005 |
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| Authors: | Cheng Heqin Ta Na Zhou Ying Zhu Jianrong Ruan Renliang Chen Jiyu |
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| Affiliation: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China; 2.Shanghai Water Authority, Shanghai 200050, China |
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| Abstract: | Mapping the risk factors in the fresh water demand and supply system of Shanghai city, water supply security risk assessment model in the Changjiang Estuary is constructed based on the equilibrium principle between the demand and supply quantity of fresh water. The complex effect of population growth, runoff reduction and sea level rise has been estimated into the fresh water demand and supply quantity prediction. The demand quantity of fresh water is predicted by the system dynamics analysis method and Vensim software. The supply quantity of fresh water is simulated by 3-D numerical model of saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary with high resolution non-orthogonal curvilinear grid mobile tidal boundary. The results of risk assessment of fresh water supply security show that fresh water shortage in 2020 will reach 0.39 million and 0.74 million m3/d respectively in a sea level rise of 10 cm and 25 cm with dry season and no additional fresh water supply, and water supply will decrease 0.19 million m3/d with extremely drought hydrological years. If new Meimaosha water supply is 3 million m3/d, the situation of water shortage can be alleviated in Shanghai city in 2020. |
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| Keywords: | sea level rise water sources in the Changjiang Estuary water supply security risk assessment equilibrium principle of fresh water supply and demand |
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