晋江城市空气质量污染潜势统计预报方法初探

根据实际工作经验,通过分析气象条件对晋江空气质量的影响，建立了一套以天气形势为依托、综合考虑气象要素变化、以分类法和趋势外推法相结合的空气污染潜势的统计预报方法。经实践检验：用该方法预报空气质量为Ⅰ级和Ⅲ级以上的准确率分别为95.2%和79.2%，API指数误差在[-10，10]的命中率达到82.5%。预报方法简单、经济、实用，预报准确率较高，可为沿海地区中小城市今后开展空气质量预报提供参考。

Preliminary study on urban air quality pollution potential statistical forecast method in Jinjiang, Fujian province

Based on the effects of meteorological factors on air quality, together with weather situation and meteorological elements, a set of pollution potential statistical forecast method was developed with practical experience. The forecast accuracy rates of air quality over grades Ⅰ and Ⅲ reach 95.2% and 79.2%, respectively. The hit rates of API index errors in the range from -10 to 10 reach 82.5%. This forecast method is simple, economic and practical and has the higher accuracy rate, so it can provide the references for air quality forecast of middle and small cities in coastal area.