基于CMIP5模式集合预估21世纪中国气候带变迁趋势

本文选用耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）数据，结合英国东英吉利大学气候研究中心（CRU）气温和降水资料，分析了中国20世纪末期气候带分布；以此为基础，模拟并分析了RCP2.6和RCP8.5两种情景下中国21世纪中期和末期气候带的变迁趋势。结果表明：CMIP5模式集合数据能较好地模拟出中国区域气温和降水空间分布形态，CRU分析资料描述的气候带分布与柯本气候分类吻合较好。21世纪中期、末期与20世纪末期相比，RCP2.6情景下，气候类型及分布变化并不显著，RCP8.5情景下，热夏冬干温暖型分别增加了28.2%（中期）、86.9%（末期），草原气候分别增加了24.1%（中期）、49.4%（末期）。热夏冬干冷温型到21世纪末期有明显的增加，但苔原气候和沙漠气候类型所占比重减少。

Projection of Climate Zone Shifts in the 21st Century in China Based on CMIP5 Models Data

Climate classification of China in the end of the 20th century was simulated by using 21 CMIP5 models data and Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data sets. Then, climate classification in the mid and end of the 21st century under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios was also simulated. The results show that the temporal distribution pattern of temperature and precipitation can be simulated well by CMIP5 data in China and the climate classification simulated by using CRU data sets has good fitness with that of FAO. There is no significant change in climate classification in the 21st century relative to that in the end of the 20th century. The range of Cwa and BS climates will increase by 28.2% /86.9% and 24.1% /49.4% in the mid /end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, compared with that in the end of the 20th century. Dwa climates will expand, but ET and BW climates will decrease significantly in the end of the 21st century.