An analogue model to derive additional climate change scenarios from existing GCM simulations |
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Authors: | C Huntingford P M Cox |
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Institution: | (1) Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK, GB;(2) Hadley Centre, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks, RG12 2SY, UK, GB |
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Abstract: | Changes in land surface driving variables, predicted by GCM transient climate change experiments, are confirmed to exhibit
linearity in the global mean land temperature anomaly, ΔT
l
. The associated constants of proportionality retain spatial and seasonal characteristics of the GCM output, whilst ΔT
l
is related to radiative forcing anomalies. The resultant analogue model is shown to be robust between GCM runs and as such
provides a computationally efficient technique of extending existing GCM experiments to a large range of climate change scenarios.
As an example impacts study, the analogue model is used to drive a terrestrial ecosystem model, and predicted changes in terrestrial
carbon are found to be similar to those when using GCM anomalies directly.
Received: 4 January 1999 / Accepted: 11 December 1999 |
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