近百年山西霜雪灾害时空特征

霜雪灾害对山西影响范围广、危害大, 通过对山西1901～2000年历史文献和现代气象 资料的搜集、整理和分析, 对该地区霜雪灾害的等级、阶段、周期及其成因进行研究, 旨在 探寻山西霜雪灾害发生的规律, 为该地区此类灾害的预测和防治提供科学依据。研究表明, 100年间轻度灾害占15.7%、中度占62.1%、重度占22.2%;灾害变化分为四个阶段, 1901 ～1948年为第一阶段, 1949～1964年为第二阶段, 1965～1974年为第三阶段, 1975～2000 年为第四阶段, 第一、三阶段以轻、中度灾害为主, 第二、四阶段以中、重度霜雪灾害为主; 小波分析表明, 灾害主要表现为2～3a、5～8a和25～35a的周期;山西的霜雪灾害可分为四 种成因类型;100年中发生了四次寒冷气候事件, 出现三个异常寒冷灾害年。

The spatial and temporal characteristics of frost and snow disaster in Shanxi nearly one hundred years

Frost and snow disasters have wide and harmful influence on Shanxi.Based on collecting,reorganizing and analyzing the history and modern meteorological data obtained in Shanxi from 1901 to 2000,this paper studies the grade series,stage changes,different grades of periodicity and reasons for the frost and snow disasters.It aims to explore the occurrences of the frost and snow disasters in Shanxi,and provide a scientific basis for the regional prediction and mitigation of such disasters.The gradation may be identified as mild,moderate and severe disasters,and their occurrence probabilities accounted for 15.7%,62.1% and 22.2%separately in 100years.The disasters can be divided into four stages in this study.The first stage is 1901～1948,the second 1949～1964,the third 1965 ～1974and the fourth 1975～2000.The occurrences in the first and third stages were mainly mild and moderate disasters,while the second and fourth witnessed moderate and severe disasters.Wavelets analysis shows that there were mainly three periods of 2-3a, 5-8a and 25-35a.They can be divided into four types.There were four cold climate events and three extreme cold disaster years in nearly 100 years.