On probabilities of avalanches triggered by alpine skiers. An empirically driven decision strategy for backcountry skiers based on these probabilities |
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Authors: | Christian Pfeifer |
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Institution: | 1.Institut für Statistik,Universit?t Innsbruck,Innsbruck,Austria |
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Abstract: | Most fatal avalanche accidents in the Alps are caused by skiers and snowboarders. It has been one aim from the beginning to
give guidelines for backcountry skiers in order to avoid avalanche accidents. About 10 years ago, the mountain guide Werner
Munter developed a strategy for backcountry skiers whether to go or not to go on a skiing tour. However, his decision strategy
has a lack of empirical evidence because he does not take into account incidents without avalanche accidents. This article
proposes a decision strategy for backcountry skiers based on probabilities of a logistic regression model using variables,
such as danger level, incline of the slope and aspect of the slope, which turned out to be the most important ones. Additional
information on frequencies of skiers on slopes under specific conditions is included in the model. We used accident data and
avalanche forecasts in Tyrol reported by the Tyrolean avalanche information service within three seasons (1999–2002, 497 days
of observations) for model building. Additionally we carried out a holdout validation using data of the same type within two
seasons (2002–2004, 314 days of observation) in order to check the accuracy of the model. Our proposal shows a remarkable
correlation with Munter’s method. |
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Keywords: | Avalanche risk management Human triggered avalanches Backcountry skiing Decision strategy Logistic regression model |
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