印度暴力袭击事件的时空演变及其驱动机制

基于全球恐怖主义数据库（GTD）和南亚恐怖主义门户网站（SATP）所收录的印度暴力袭击事件数据,借助统计分析和核密度分析法,对1980—2017年印度暴力袭击事件时空演变及其驱动机制进行分析。结果表明：印度国内的暴力袭击事件频发,1980年以来呈现出波动上升态势。从空间上看,印度国内的暴力袭击事件具有自西到东、从北到南以及由边境地区向内地发展的扩散特点,展现出局部集中、面上扩散的发展趋势;呈现出以西北部的查馍-克什米尔地区和旁遮普邦、东北部的阿萨姆邦和曼尼普尔邦、中部的恰蒂斯格尔邦和东部的贾坎德邦、比哈尔邦和西孟加拉邦为主的四大集聚中心;形成以印度河上游—恒河—布拉马普特拉河一线为横轴,东高止山脉及其北部山区为纵轴的“T”字形空间格局。印度暴力袭击事件的时空演变受到身份认同、经济问题、历史问题和利益诉求等多方面因素的影响,通过宗教极端主义组织、民族分离主义组织、武装革命主义组织推动以及行动主体之间的互相作用,推动了暴力袭击事件的时空演变。要从根本上解决印度国内暴力袭击事件频发的态势,需要从政治、经济、宗教、社会等多方面进行综合施策。

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Driving Mechanism of Violent Attacks in India

Violent extremism, as an unconventional means and phenomenon by which a weak party confronts a strong, and to achieve their own political or other non-purely selfish purposes through violence, threats and other destructive means. Violent extremism is usually manifested as political extremism, religious extremism and national extremism, it has thus also become one of the ideological roots of terrorism. As a great power in South Asia, India has been plagued by violent extremism since its independence. The frequent occurrence of violent attacks not only seriously affects the domestic security situation in India, but also poses a threat to peace and stability in South Asia. In addition, as one of the important nodes of the “turbulent arc of world terrorism”, the proliferation of violent extremism in India will further aggravate the instability in the region and even the whole world. Based on data from the violent attacks in India included the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and the South Asian Terrorism Portal (SATP), this study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of violent attacks in India from 1980 to 2017 by means of nuclear density analysis. The violent attacks in India are frequent, which have obvious targets and spatial orientation in the targets and the distribution of the events. The targets of violent attacks mainly refer to organizations such as government departments, the military, the police, the transportation department, and religious figures. From a spatial perspective, the violent attacks in India have spread from west to east, from north to south, and from border areas to inland. The characteristics show the development trend of local concentration and surface diffusion. Presented in the northwestern Jammu-Kashmir region and Punjab, the northeastern Assam and Manipur, the central Chhattisgarh and the eastern Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal Four gathering centers. A “T”-shaped spatial pattern is formed with the upper axis of the Indus River-the Ganges-Brahmaputra River as the horizontal axis, and the eastern Ghats and its northern mountains as the vertical axis. The research shows that it is affected by many factors, such as identity, economic problems, historical problems and interest demands, and under the promotion of religious extremism, national separatism, armed revolutionism, the interaction between actors, the violent attacks in India have shown that the subject of the attack has become more complicated and diversified. The scope of the attack has expanded, the attacks has become more frequent and violent attacks have far-reaching effects. At present, violent attacks and terrorist attacks occur frequently all over the world, which pose a great threat to regional stability, national security and international peace. The study on the spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of violent attacks in India is of certain reference significance for global counter-terrorism strategy and harmonious development of global society.