基于CGE模型的上海市碳排放交易的环境经济影响分析

通过应用上海市能源－环境-经济CGE模型，针对碳排放交易机制所涉及的重要要素，包括覆盖行业和分配方式等设计不同的情景，模拟了在不同的就业条件下碳排放交易机制对经济的影响和对传统污染物的协同减排效应。结果表明，如果碳交易纳管行业释放出来的劳动力能及时被其他行业吸纳和消化，则碳交易对GDP的整体影响为正，碳交易的实施产生了双重红利。若劳动力不能及时转移，则碳交易对GDP的整体影响为负，2020年不同情景下GDP损失为1.5%～2.4%；相比覆盖部分行业，在覆盖全部行业的情景下，碳价格最低，从2013年的30元/t增加到2020年的202元/t，对高耗能行业的竞争力影响相对较小，但是由于所有行业都纳入到纳管范围，使得对GDP的负面影响最大；此外，实施碳交易能明显改善环境效益，有助于推动SO₂和NO_X减排目标的实现。

Economic and Environmental Impacts of the Shanghai Carbon Emission Trading: Based on CGE Model Analysis

Shanghai energy-environment-economy CGE model was developed to simulate the economic impacts and co-benefits of different carbon emission trading schemes (ETS) under alternative employment conditions. The results illustrate that double dividend from carbon emission trading is available supposing that the labor released out from ETS sectors is absorbed immediately. Otherwise, GDP will decrease 1.5%-2.4% compared to baseline due to the implementation of ETS in 2020. Under the scenario with all sectors covered by ETS, the carbon price is relative lower, which increase from 30 RMB/t CO₂ in 2013 to 202 RMB/t CO₂ in 2020. The negative impact on the competitiveness of energy-intensive sectors is smaller compared to the scenario that part of sectors are covered, however, the negative impact on GDP is the biggest. Carbon emission trading will bring obvious environmental co-benefits, and play an important role on the realization of SO₂ and NO_X mitigation target.