1991—2018年粤港澳大湾区海岸线的时空变迁

为科学开发利用海洋资源和促进粤港澳大湾区的可持续发展，文章通过目视解译遥感影像提取该区域的海岸线信息，分析海岸线的变迁强度、分形维数和自然岸线保有率的变化以及海岸线变迁的驱动力。研究结果表明：1991—2018年粤港澳大湾区海岸线的时空变迁特征明显，总体呈向外扩张的趋势；海岸线长度增长155.76 km，总体变迁强度为0.43%，陆域扩张面积达482.68 km2；海岸线平均分形维数为 1.14，呈持续上升的趋势，但变化速率逐渐减缓；自然岸线保有率总体呈下降趋势，总下降幅度为24.05%，各城市呈较大差异但存在规律，可分4个类型分析海岸线变迁的驱动力；人为因素是粤港澳大湾区海岸线变迁的主要驱动因素，促使海岸线变迁的方向和速率产生巨大变化。

The Space-time Change of Coastline of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area From 1991 to 2018

In order to develop and utilize marine resources scientifically and promote the sustainable development of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, this paper extracted coastline information through visual interpretation of remote sensing images, and analyzed the change intensity, fractal dimension, natural shoreline preservation rate of coastline and the driving forces of coastline change. The results showed that the shoreline of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area had obvious spatio-temporal evolution characteristics from 1991 to 2018. The overall shoreline had been expanding outward. The length of the shoreline had increased 155.76 km, with the overall change intensity of 0.43%,and the land expansion area had reached 482.68 km2.The average fractal dimension was 1.14, showing a trend of continuous increase, but the change rate gradually slowed down. The natural shoreline preservation rate generally showed a downward trend, with a total decline of 24.05%. There were great differences among cities, but there were regularities, which could be divided into 4 categories to analyze the driving forces of coastline change. Human factors were the main driving factors of the coastline changes in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, which greatly changed the direction and rate of the coastline changes.