产业转移背景下广东省工业碳排放的驱动因素及碳转移分析

随着全球气候变暖,工业碳排放量持续增加已成为全球关注的热点,由于工业产业升级和转移所引起的碳排放空间重塑也成为低碳发展研究的新方向.本文综合运用碳排放量物料平衡法及结构分解模型,核算2001-2017年广东省城市工业各行业的碳排放量,揭示其时空格局演变规律,同时在产业转移背景下,分析工业碳排放变化的驱动因素以及碳转移格...

Driving factors and carbon transfer of industrial carbon emissions in Guangdong province under the background of industrial transfer

The continuous increase of industrial carbon emissions, one of the causes for global warming, has become a hot topic, which attracts wide attention in the world. At the same time, the spatial remodeling and differences of industrial carbon emissions are caused by industrial upgrades and transfers. Therefore, these topics have consisted of a new direction for research related with low-carbon city construction. This article uses methods, such as carbon emissions material balance method and structural decomposition model, to calculate the carbon emissions of various industries in Guangdong's cities at the prefecture level, from 2001 to 2017. Besides, this article analyzes the driving factors of industrial carbon emissions differences and explores the pattern of industrial transfer and its carbon transfer under the background of industrial transfer policies in Guangdong. With the above methods and models, the study found that, as a whole, industrial carbon emissions of the province showed an increasing trend, and regional differences gradually increased, which means that the gap among cities has enlarged during the period 2001-2017 in terms of industrial carbon emissions. The distribution pattern of industrial carbon emissions within the province showed that a trend of changing from spreading from a single core to the surroundings to eventually evolving into a “fractal T-shaped” pattern. The environmental effects brought by the development of the industrial industry are determined comprehensively by three factors, which are the economic scale, industrial structure, and technological strength. Among them, the scale effect has the largest influence, while the structure factor is rather weak. The technical effect can play a more important role in regions with low-carbon emission intensity. The Pearl River Delta region is the place where the main high-energy-consuming industries are transferred out, and the inter-annual change in carbon emissions is relatively large. The cities of eastern and western Guangdong are the main places where the medium-energy-consuming and high-energy-consuming industries are transferred in, and the inter-annual change in carbon emissions is small.