中国按比例安排残疾人就业的动力机制与空间分布

残疾人就业是提高残疾人社会融入程度的基本保障。本文利用空间计量模型,定量分析经济水平、政府政策、残疾人受教育程度、残疾程度以及残疾人康复服务水平5个因素对中国疾人就业发展的影响程度。在此基础上,运用泰尔指数和空间自相关分析,对2011—2017年中国残疾人就业发展的空间分异特征进行综合评估。结果表明：① 经济水平、政府政策和残疾人受教育程度对残疾人就业水平的提升均具有一定的促进作用,而残疾程度则会在一定程度上抑制残疾人就业的发展。② 2011—2017年中国残疾人就业水平区域总体差异扩大,空间自相关性显著,集聚特征明显;局部关联指数则表明全国残疾人就业水平的热点区和冷点区分布不均衡,空间二元结构显著;③ 残疾人就业水平在空间上呈现“3带、4区”的分布格局,主要表现为从东部沿海向西部内陆逐渐递减的变化趋势,且就业密集区与京津冀、长江三角洲和珠江三角洲三大城市群结构呈现较高的一致性。④ 加快发展地方经济、加大政府扶持力度以及提升残疾人受教育水平是改善中国残疾人就业发展现状的重要途径。

Driving factors and spatial distribution of proportional employment of disabled people in China

The employment of disabled people is one of the important indicators that guarantee social integration.In this paper,a spatial econometric model is used to make a systematic analysis of the impact of economic condition,government policies,level of education,and the degree of disability and rehabilitation service level of disabled persons on the employment level of disabled Chinese citizens.Using the Theil index and spatial autocorrelation analysis,this article comprehensively assesses the employment level and spatial differentiation characteristics of disabled people in China over the period 2011-2017.The results showed that,first,economic condition,government policies,and educational level of the disabled are positively correlated with the increase of their proportional employment,while the degree of disability showed a negative correlation with the employment rate.Second,the regional differences in the proportional employment level of disabled people were expanded to reveal the agglomeration characteristics.The Getis-Ord Gi*indicated that the distribution of hot and cold spots in the employment level of disabled people was uneven,and that the spatial dual structure was obvious.Third,the employment of disabled persons showed a distribution pattern of"three clusters and four zones",which was mainly a reflection of the decreasing trend in employment level from the eastern coastal region to the western inland region.The structure of the three major urban agglomerations,namely,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,Yangtze River Delta,and Pearl River Delta,which are also known as employment-intensive areas,showed a high degree of consistency.Fourth,accelerating the development of local economy,strengthening government support,and increasing educational opportunities for the disabled were suggested to enhance China’s proportional employment of disabled people.