北极能源开发的地缘要素驱动机制

全球气候变暖加速了北极海冰的融化,使得北极能源开发变成可能,大大激发了泛北极国家参与北极能源开发的积极性。本文在分析了泛北极国家（北极8国和13个观察员国）能源贸易格局的基础上;利用相关性分析方法,明确了影响北极能源的关键地缘要素;并通过模糊定性分析（fs/QCA）,揭示了关键地缘要素及其组合对不同国家开发或参与开发北极能源的驱动机制。结果表明：① 北极国家多为能源输出国,而北极观察员国多为能源进口国;中国从北极国家能源进口量较少,潜力较大;② 能源依赖性、能源重要性、军事力量、对外投资影响力和国家包容性是影响泛北极国家开发北极能源的关键地缘要素,而气候表现和环保指数与北极能源开发的关系并不显著;③ 关键地缘要素的作用路径主要包括：一是以能源依赖性、能源重要性和军事力量为主要驱动,包括俄罗斯、中国、美国、印度、日本和韩国等国家;二是受到包容性发展限制的、以大国力量为驱动的西欧国家;三是以能源重要性为驱动的北欧国家。基于以上研究结果,本文提出了中国参与北极能源开发的对策建议。

The geopolitical driving forces and mechanism on Arctic energy exploitation

The accelerating global warming enhanced the Arctic sea ice melting, which made it possible to explore energy resources in the Arctic region. This study firstly analyzed the energy trade structure in the pan-Arctic countries, covering Arctic countries and the observer countries. Secondly, it uses correlation analysis to extract the direct geopolitical factors including energy dependence, energy importance, energy security, and indirect geopolitical factors including national power (military power and foreign investment influence), climate and environmental protection and social inclusive development, which might influence the willingness of the pan-Arctic countries to exploit the Arctic energy. Finally, we apply fuzzy-set qualitative analysis (fs/QCA) to examine the driving mechanisms of these geopolitical factors on the willingness to exploit the Arctic energy. The results showed that: (1) Arctic countries mainly serve as energy exporter while observer countries mainly serve as energy importer. The amount of China's energy imported from Arctic counties is small at current stage, but with a huge potential. (2) Energy dependence, energy importance, national power and social inclusive development are significantly correlated with the willingness on Arctic energy exploitation, acting as key geopolitical factors. (3) Key geopolitical factors drive or impede the willingness on Arctic energy exploitation through three major pathways, among which, national power together with energy dependence or energy importance behave as the major driving forces for most of the pan-Arctic countries, large countries in particular, such as Russia, USA, China and India. The second pathway is driven by national power but restricted by social inclusive development, including most European countries and Canada. The third pathway is mainly driven by energy importance while restricted by social inclusive development, mainly including Norway. Finally, this study provided coping strategies and suggestions on China's participating Arctic energy exploitation based on the energy trade structure and the driving mechanisms.