京津冀水资源承载力风险评估模型构建研究

本文聚焦国家重要战略区——京津冀地区需水压力增大、水资源超载等问题,基于水资源承载力理论,将风险评估引入水资源承载系统,探索建构水资源承载力风险的概念内涵、因子识别与评估模型等理论体系,综合考虑气候变化、城镇化与产业结构变动等影响水资源承载系统的关键因子,利用多种计量经济模型、遥感反演模型与地理信息技术等分别开展水资源...

Construction of risk assessment model of water resources carrying capacity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Focusing on issues of increasing pressure of water demand and water overload in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, an important national strategic area, and based on the theory of water resources carrying capacity, the risk assessment was introduced into water resources carrying system, and the theoretical systems of water resources carrying capacity risk were explored such as the concept and connotation, factor identification and evaluation models. Considering the key factors such as climate change, urbanization and industrial structure changes that affect the water resources carrying system, the hazard, vulnerability and exposure assessment models of water resources carrying capacity risk were constructed by using the metrological geography methods, remotely sensed retrieval model and geographic information technology. This study aims to objectively reflect the future characteristics of water resources carrying status and the law of risk evolution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results show that: （1） The future average value of the comprehensive hazard index in the study region is 0.53, which belongs to the middle risk level, with the risk level of population growth and urbanization being the highest in the future （0.68, high risk）, followed by climate change risk （0.47, medium risk） and economic and industrial development risk （0.25, weak risk）. （2） In the future, the vulnerability degree is increasing, and the average vulnerability index is 0.72, which belongs to high vulnerability level. （3） In the future, the average exposure index is 0.48, which belongs to the middle exposure level and shows an increasing trend, of which the overall exposure of the study area is the strongest in 2035. （4） In the years of 2025, 2030 and 2035, the average value of water resources carrying capacity risk index will increase by 9.3%, 11.5% and 13.9% compared with 2016 in this region. The number of high-risk cities will increase from 3 in 2016 to 9 in 2035, which shows that in the future, the risk degree of water resources carrying will increase, the risk disturbance of water resources carrying system will be strong, and the possibility of water resources overloading will increase, especially in Beijing and southern Hebei.