首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     

京津冀水资源承载力风险评估模型构建研究
引用本文:余灏哲,李丽娟,李九一. 京津冀水资源承载力风险评估模型构建研究[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(9): 2623-2637. DOI: 10.11821/dlyj020201055
作者姓名:余灏哲  李丽娟  李九一
作者单位:1. 陕西理工大学人文学院,汉中7230012. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京 100101
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401402);陕西省教育厅科研计划(21JK0076);陕西省重点研发计划(2021SF-487);陕西理工大学人才启动项目(SLGRCQD2033)
摘    要:本文聚焦国家重要战略区——京津冀地区需水压力增大、水资源超载等问题,基于水资源承载力理论,将风险评估引入水资源承载系统,探索建构水资源承载力风险的概念内涵、因子识别与评估模型等理论体系,综合考虑气候变化、城镇化与产业结构变动等影响水资源承载系统的关键因子,利用多种计量经济模型、遥感反演模型与地理信息技术等分别开展水资源...

关 键 词:水资源承载力风险  危险性  脆弱性  暴露性  京津冀地区
收稿时间:2020-11-03

Construction of risk assessment model of water resources carrying capacity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
YU Haozhe,LI Lijuan,LI Jiuyi. Construction of risk assessment model of water resources carrying capacity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J]. Geographical Research, 2021, 40(9): 2623-2637. DOI: 10.11821/dlyj020201055
Authors:YU Haozhe  LI Lijuan  LI Jiuyi
Affiliation:1. School of Humanities, Shaanxi University of Science and Technology, Hanzhong 723001, Shaanxi, China2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
Abstract:Focusing on issues of increasing pressure of water demand and water overload in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, an important national strategic area, and based on the theory of water resources carrying capacity, the risk assessment was introduced into water resources carrying system, and the theoretical systems of water resources carrying capacity risk were explored such as the concept and connotation, factor identification and evaluation models. Considering the key factors such as climate change, urbanization and industrial structure changes that affect the water resources carrying system, the hazard, vulnerability and exposure assessment models of water resources carrying capacity risk were constructed by using the metrological geography methods, remotely sensed retrieval model and geographic information technology. This study aims to objectively reflect the future characteristics of water resources carrying status and the law of risk evolution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results show that: (1) The future average value of the comprehensive hazard index in the study region is 0.53, which belongs to the middle risk level, with the risk level of population growth and urbanization being the highest in the future (0.68, high risk), followed by climate change risk (0.47, medium risk) and economic and industrial development risk (0.25, weak risk). (2) In the future, the vulnerability degree is increasing, and the average vulnerability index is 0.72, which belongs to high vulnerability level. (3) In the future, the average exposure index is 0.48, which belongs to the middle exposure level and shows an increasing trend, of which the overall exposure of the study area is the strongest in 2035. (4) In the years of 2025, 2030 and 2035, the average value of water resources carrying capacity risk index will increase by 9.3%, 11.5% and 13.9% compared with 2016 in this region. The number of high-risk cities will increase from 3 in 2016 to 9 in 2035, which shows that in the future, the risk degree of water resources carrying will increase, the risk disturbance of water resources carrying system will be strong, and the possibility of water resources overloading will increase, especially in Beijing and southern Hebei.
Keywords:water resources carrying capacity risk  hazard  vulnerability  exposure  Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region  
本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录!
点击此处可从《地理研究》浏览原始摘要信息
点击此处可从《地理研究》下载全文
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号