基于城市产业结构特征的高铁生产性服务业集散效应——以长三角城市群为例

高铁对生产性服务业的空间集散效应深受城市特征的影响。根据城市产业发展特征将城市分为二产主导型城市和三产主导型城市,借助双重差分模型探讨高铁对不同产业结构的城市生产性服务业及其细分行业的空间效应差异。结果表明,高铁对生产性服务业及细分行业的集散效应具有显著时滞性和异质性,城市产业结构对其效应产生了显著影响。① 基于生产性服务业整体的研究表明,在静态上,高铁促进二产主导型城市产业空间分散、三产主导型城市产业空间集聚;在动态上,高铁对二产主导型城市的生产性服务业空间集散具有先促进集聚后促进分散的特性,对三产主导型城市的产业效应始终表现为促进集聚。② 对于运输服务业、租赁与商服业而言,无论是静态效应还是动态效应,城市产业结构对其影响均较小,在静态上高铁促进二产主导型城市和三产主导型城市的产业在空间分散布局;在动态上高铁效应总体表现为“不显著-促进分散”的二阶段性。③ 对于金融服务业和研发设计业而言,高铁的静态效应在作用方向上具有一致性,均表现为促进产业集聚,其动态效应受到城市产业结构的影响表现出显著阶段性差异。④ 对于信息服务业而言,高铁对其空间集散的静态效应表现为对二产主导型城市的产业影响不显著,促进三产主导型城市的信息服务业在空间集聚,且其动态效应与静态效应相一致。

The dispersion and aggregation effects of urban industrial structure of high-speed rail on producer services:A case study of Yangtze River Delta

The aggregation effect of high-speed rail on producer services is deeply influenced by urban characteristics. Based on the operation data of high-speed rail and relevant urban data, this paper, with the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration as the study area, discusses the aggregation effect of high-speed rail on producer services and its sub-sectors with the help of the Difference-in-Difference model. The results show that the dispersion and aggregation effects of high-speed rail on producer services and its sub-sectors are significantly lagged and heterogeneous, in which the urban industrial structure has marked effects. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) According to the industrial structure, cities are divided into industry-oriented cities and service-oriented cities. Research based on the overall producer services study shows that statically, high-speed rail promotes industrial spatial dispersion in industry-oriented cities and industrial aggregation in service-oriented cities. Dynamically, the high-speed rail effect on industry-oriented cities has the characteristic of first promoting agglomeration and then promoting dispersion. The industrial effect on service-oriented cities is always expressed as promoting agglomeration. (2) For the transport services, leasing and commercial services industry, the impact of urban industrial structure is relatively mild, both statically and dynamically. The static effect promotes the spatial dispersion of industries in industrial and service-oriented cities, while the dynamic effect generally shows the two-stage character of “insignificant-promoting dispersion”. The characteristics of these two industries have greatly contributed to the above effects. (3) For the financial services, research and design services industry, the static effects are consistent in the direction, both of which are manifested in the promotion of industrial agglomeration, while the dynamic effects affected by industrial structure show significant stage differences on both direction and duration. (4) For the information service industry, the static effect of high-speed rail is significantly affected by industrial structure, which shows no significant influence on the industry-oriented cities, and promotes agglomeration of the information service industry in service-oriented cities. The dynamic effect is relatively consistent with the static effect. The results of the robustness test performed by replacing the explanatory variables are in agreement with those in the location quotient.