中国东北三省城市收缩的识别及其类型划分

城市收缩是一个受经济全球化影响,并具有区域地方特征的世界性经济社会现象,如何构建快速城镇化进程中“中国化”城市收缩研究理论分析框架,为世界城市收缩研究提供中国经验,是新时期中国地理学者、城市规划工作者亟需重点关注和研究的新命题。本文认为城市收缩本质是城市“发展势能”的相对弱化或绝对退化而引起以人口为核心的经济发展要素的再区位和城市功能形态空间重构的响应过程或状态,其是一个综合概念,一个基于人口变化、经济变化、投资消费变化与财政变化等的多维一体过程,据此构建基于“二步诊断法”的城市收缩识别体系及其类型划分标准,同时针对中国最具典型和代表性的东北三省开展城市收缩的实证分析。结果表明：① 东北三省存在明显的城市收缩现象、且呈现出区域化的发展演化趋势;整体可归纳为资源依赖型收缩城市、“虹吸”型收缩城市、综合型收缩城市及区位制约型收缩城市4种模式,其中资源依赖型收缩城市是主体,占据了整个收缩城市的2/3;② 空间上整体呈现出北高南低的空间格局,与经济发展重心不断南移相呼应;③ 指标维度收缩整体遵循“投资消费与经济下行→人口收缩→财政收缩”的内在演化逻辑关联;④ 立足于“二步诊断法”的城市收缩识别体系及其类型划分标准反映出当前基于人口变化学的识别标准的合理性及其局限性——人口变化学能够在很大程度上识别收缩城市,但是对于划分收缩城市类型、揭示收缩城市内在耦合机理具有一定的局限性;⑤ 实证结果表明“二步诊断法”是合理可行的,其可为中国城市收缩的识别、东北振兴政策的制定提供工具支撑与参考依据。

Identification and stage division of urban shrinkage in the three provinces of Northeast China

Urban shrinkage is a global socio-economic phenomenon embedded in wave of economic globalization and rooted in "localization". And it has become a new proposition for Chinese geographers and urban planners to build a theoretical analysis framework of "Chinese-style" urban shrinkage research in the process of rapid urbanization and to provide Chinese experience for the study of urban shrinkage globally. In this paper, we think the essence of urban shrinkage is a response progress or status that the city's "development potential" is relative weakening or absolute degradation and caused re-location of the population-centric economic development elements and spatial reconstruction of the urban functional forms. It is a comprehensive concept, a multi-dimensional and integrated process based on the changes in population, economy, investment and consumption, and social security. And we establish the identification system and the classification criteria of urban shrinkage types based on the "two-step diagnosis method", and select the three provinces of Northeast China which are the most representative urban shrinkage regions in China to make an empirical analysis. The results show that: (1) There does exist an obvious urban shrinkage phenomenon, and the evolution trend is going to regionalization in the three provinces. And we classify the whole identified shrinkage cities into four categories: resource-dependent shrinking cities, "siphon" shrinking cities, comprehensive shrinking cities and location-constrained shrinking cities. It can be found that the resource-dependent shrinking cities are the main body, occupying 2/3 of the entire shrinking cities. (2) The spatial pattern formed by the identified shrinkage cities shows the characteristics that the number of the shrinkage cities is large in the north and small in the south, which is echoing the situation that the economic center is continuously moving from north to south. (3) From the indicator dimension, it can be found that urban shrinking wholly follows the internal evolutionary and logical connection of "investment and consumption, economic shrinkage→population shrinkage→social security shrinkage". (4) The urban shrinkage identification system and its type classification criteria based on the "two-step diagnostic method" in this paper reflect the rationality and limitations of the current urban shrinkage identification standard based on population shrinkage, although it can identify shrinking cities to a large extent, and have certain limitations in classifying shrinking city types and revealing the internal coupling mechanism of shrinking cities. (5) The empirical results confirm that the "two-step diagnosis method" of urban shrinkage is reasonable and feasible, which can provide tool support and reference basis for the identification of China's urban shrinkage and the formulation of policies for the revitalization of Northeast China.