基于东北航线的中欧贸易研究

东北航线因其战略地位重要而日益受到世界各国的关注.本文计算出中欧港口航运经济成本及中欧国家贸易互补指数,基于东北航线构建随机前沿贸易引力模型,探究中国对欧洲18国进出口贸易的影响因素,结果发现:①以12000 TEU运输量为对比,中欧港口基于东北航线的航运经济成本约为传统航线的1.58～2.80倍.②2000-2018...

Research of China-EU trade based on the Northern Sea Route

The Northern Sea Route has been increasingly attracting the attention from countries all over the world due to its important strategic status. By calculating the economic costs of shipping among China-EU ports through the Northern Sea Route and China-EU trade complementarity index, this study builds a trade gravity model in stochastic frontier based on the Northern Sea Route, and explores the influencing factors of China’s import from and export trade to 18 European countries, which shows the following: (1) Taking the traffic volume of 12000 TEU for comparison, the economic costs of shipping along the Northern Sea Route are 1.58-2.80 times those based on the traditional passage among China-EU ports. (2) In 2000-2018, the proportion of the China-EU trade complementarity index based on China’s export (CE_ij) greater than 1 accounted for 52.63%, and countries with higher CE_ij included Iceland, Denmark, Norway, France, Sweden and the United Kingdom, while the proportion of the China-EU trade complementarity index based on China’s import (CI_ij) less than 1 accounted for 94.74%, with a declining trend. So, China’s import and export with 18 European countries were less complementary. (3) In terms of trade scale of China’s export to 18 European countries, the economic scale of trade partner countries has a greater influence than that of China, and the economic costs of shipping are significantly negatively correlated with the trade scale based on the Northern Sea Route; in terms of trade scale of China’s import from 18 European countries, the economic scale of trade partner countries has a greater influence than that of China, and the positive correlation relationship between the economic costs of shipping and the trade scale has lower confidence based on the Northern Sea Route. (4) If the Northern Sea Route was taken for the China-EU trade, the trade efficiencies of China’s export to 18 European countries and import from them declined and rose to varying degrees, respectively, which means that the trade efficiency of China’s import and export had large room for improvement. This study can strengthen the research foundation of relationship between China-EU shipping and trade based on the Northern Sea Route, and provide references for China on participating in the construction of the Northern Sea Route, exploiting and utilizing Arctic resources, and reinforcing the trade between China and Europe.