多情景模拟下粤港澳大湾区生态系统服务评估与权衡研究

城镇化快速发展导致区域的生态系统服务衰减,威胁城市的生态安全;掌握城市群地区生态系统服务权衡/协同关系量化,对提升生态系统服务总体效益和维护区域生态安全至关重要.以粤港澳大湾区为研究区域,利用InVEST模型对粤港澳大湾区1995-2018年间产水服务、固碳服务、土壤保持服务、食物供给服务共4项生态系统服务进行评估,设...

Evaluation and trade-offs of ecosystem services in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area under multi-scenario simulation

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is facing the challenge of the increasingly serious lack of ecosystem services, which greatly hinders the implementation of the national construction strategy and the sustainable economic development of the Greater Bay Area. It is critical to understand the quantification of ecosystem services trade-offs / synergies relationships in urban agglomeration so as to enhance the overall effectiveness of ecosystem services and maintenance. Two models are introduced in this paper. Firstly, a future land-use simulation （GeoSOS-FLUS） model was employed for a 12-year （up to 2030） land-use distribution under three scenarios, namely, history trend, planning and ecological protection, respectively. Secondly, 4 ecosystem services from 1995 to 2030, which are water service, the carbon sequestration, soil conservation, and food supply, are evaluated by using InVEST model in the study area. Then, trade-off or collaborative relationship between each pair of ecosystem service types are explored and discussed. The results are as follows. （1） The water service increased from 1995 to 2008 while the carbon sequestration, soil conservation and food supply decreased. （2） Each ecological service exhibits an obvious spatiotemporal heterogeneity, in which the water services of areas with high value increase while areas with low value decrease; the carbon sequestration drops greater in lower value area than in the other. Except Hong-Kong, soil conservation of other areas have showed a decreasing trend, which are found sporadically in the entire area; the high and reduced food supply are distributed in central regions such as Dongguan, Foshan, Zhongshan and Shenzhen. （3） Optimal status can be reached for the four ecosystem services, namely, water service under planning scenario, carbon sequestration and soil conservation under ecological protection scenario, food supply under history trend scenario, and comprehensive benefit of ecosystem service under ecological protection scenario. （4） The maximized trade-off relationship between ecosystem services are observed under history trend scenario and the maximized synergies relationship under ecological protection scenario, which witnessed has a stable development trend in 1995-2018. In summary, the estimation of ecosystem service of the Greater Bay Area and explanation to the mechanism of the synergistic effects of the ecosystem service with the ecological coupling models can bring to light the relationship and mechanism among different ecosystem services, and further provide reference for regional ecosystem service management and socio-economic development plan.