新疆博斯腾湖水盐平衡及水环境预测

本文通过综合整理、筛选、分析焉耆盆地1960-2003年历年逐月水文、气象、水土开发、社会经济等资料,并结合遥感影像数据,应用水盐平衡模型,模拟分析该期问博斯腾湖的水盐平衡状况,并以此为基础,结合焉耆盆地近期规划设置了两个情景方案进行模拟,对博湖未来40多年的水环境做出预测分析.结果表明。尽管近年博湖年均脱盐量达30.6×104t/a,但仍然必须使盆地进入湖区的淡水量增加、盐量减少才能降低博湖的水矿化度.盆地内近期工程项目实施后(情景B),博湖大湖区水矿化度波动于0.84-1.38g/L之间,其水矿化度有望调控到1.00g/L以下.据模拟,预测期的第37年(2040年),其水矿化度才可降至1.00g/L.孔雀河水质难于恢复到原状态,但是在保证博湖水环境改善的前提下,其水矿化度可调控到0.60g/L以下.由情景B的预测分析表明,焉耆盆地近期规划实施的工程项目对博湖的水环境是有利的,博湖水环境向良性循环发展.

Water-salt balance and water environment forecast of Lake Bosten in Xinjiang

Comprehensively sorting out, sifting and analyzing multi-year monthly data of hydrographical, meteorological, water and land uses, social economy, remote sensing from Yanji Basin, this paper simulated and analysed conditions of water-salt balance of Lake Bosten from 1960 to 2003 using Water-Salt Balance Model. Based on these studies, two projects were provided for development planning of Yanji Basin in the near future. And then, it forecasted and analysed water environments of Lake Bosten in future 40 years. According to the simulation results, some conclusion was following: Though there was exporting salt in an accumulation of average 306000t/a that made desalination in the lake, it might increase freshwater and decrease input-salt to reduce the degree of mineralization of Lake Bosten. After the construction projects in recent years were implemented in Yanji Basin, the degree of mineralization of Dahu would be limited between 0.84g/L and 1.38g/L according to scenarios of Project B. Under such circumstances, the degree of mineralization of Dahu could be adjusted and controlled under 1.00g/L. The degree of mineralization of Dahu could decrease to 1.00g/L in 2040 according to the simulation. Water quality of Kongque River was difficult to restore to original state, but its degree of mineralization could be controlled under 0.60g/L because of the improved water environments of Lake Bosten. Forecast analysis of Project B showed that it was beneficial to water environments of Lake Bosten when the construction project in the near future was completed in Yanji Basin. And water environments of Lake Bosten would tend to a well-ordered circle.