| 海原断裂带分段地震潜势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 杜义.海原断裂带分段地震潜势分析[J].高原地震,2012(4):8-10,14. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜义 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局地壳应力研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用近年来在海原断裂带各断裂段取得的最新古地震资料，通过实时概率模型，对海原断裂带东段、中段、西段进行了地震潜势的定量评估。得出海原断裂带东段、中段、西段未来100年内发生7级以上地震的概率分别为3．15％、11．35％、5．15％，未来200年内发生7级以上地震的概率分别为6．05％、22．8％、9．75％。
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| 关 键 词： | 海原断裂带 地震潜势 实时概率模型 |
HAIYUAN FAULT SEGMENTATION EARTHQUAKE POTENTIAL ANALYSIS |
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| DU Yi.HAIYUAN FAULT SEGMENTATION EARTHQUAKE POTENTIAL ANALYSIS[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,2012(4):8-10,14. |
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| Authors: | DU Yi |
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| Institution: | DU Yi(Institute of Crustal Dynamics,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 10085,China) |
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| Abstract: | The Haiyuan fault is divided into three sections. The paleoearthquake data obtained in recent years in Haiyuan fault is analyzed with real-time probability model, the quantitative assessment of earthquake poten- tial is carried out for above each section. The probability of ealthquake occurrence in the Haiyuan fault, the East, Middle and West area in the next 100 years are 3.15%, 11.35%. 5.15%, in the next 200 years are 6. 05%, 22. 8%, 9.75%. |
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| Keywords: | Haiyuan fault Seismic potential Real-time probability model |
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