基于天气分型的夏季逐时用电负荷预报

用2004年和2005年6—8月用电负荷资料和气象资料,分月建立了日平均气象负荷预报方程。讨论了用气象负荷的日变化量来代替总用电负荷的日变化量进而预报逐日总负荷的可行性。分5种天气类型统计了各天气类型下逐时负荷与日平均负荷的比率,日平均用电负荷预报值与该天气类型的逐时比率相乘得到逐时用电负荷的预报值。经2006年试用,日平均用电负荷预报的平均相对误差为2.0%,逐时用电负荷预报的平均相对误差为2.9%,对日平均用电负荷起伏较大的变化过程做出了准确预报。

Hourly Electric Load Forecast Based on Different Weather Type in Summer

Monthly forecast equations of daily average meteorology electric loads are obtained by using the electric loads and weather data from June to August in 2004 and 2005. The feasibility that the daily variation of total loads is replaced by daily variation of meteorology loads to forecast daily total loads is studied. The weather types are divided into five kinds and the ratio of the hourly loads to the daily average loads is calculated for each kind. The hourly electric loads equal to the product of daily total loads multiplied by hourly ratio in the corresponding weather type. Testing forecast is made during 2006, the results show that average relative errors of daily and hourly average electric load forecasts are 2.0% and 2.9%, respectively. The variation of daily electric loads with large fluctuation is well predicted.