2007年6-8月T213与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

对2007年6—8月T213模式进行天气学检验,并与欧洲中心ECMWF模式及日本模式进行了比较。结果表明:3种模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整演变具有较好的预报性能。综合来看,ECMWF模式对各系统及要素的预报误差最小,最接近实况,日本模式和T213模式稍差,稳定性不如ECMWF模式,特别是T213模式对0709号台风圣帕路径及强度的预报与实况相差较大,而ECMWF模式及日本模式预报较为准确。

Verification of the Medium range Forecast Efficiency of T213 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from June to August 2007

Actually, the products of numerical forecast have been broad applied to weather forecast operation in China. In order to improve the ability to use the products of T213, ECMWF and Japan models, the performance of T213, ECMWF and Japan models for 96h medium-range forecasting during the period from June to August 2007 was verified and compared in the paper. The results show that the three models have a good performance in aspect of predicting the large-scale circulation evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitudes. As a whole, ECMWF model is more classic in forecasting most weather systems compared with the T213 and Japan models. Especially, T213 model has a large error in predicting path and intensity of typhoon SEPAT, whereas ECMWF and Japan models are relatively accurate.