| 基于可靠度的工程风险决策初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘宁,贾超,陈进. 基于可靠度的工程风险决策初探[J]. 岩土力学, 2004, 25(8): 1297-1301 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘宁 贾超 陈进 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学 土木工程学院，江苏 南京 210098；2.长江科学院，湖北 武汉 430010 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部科学技术研究重点项目资助，水利部科技创新研究重点项目资助(No.SCX2002-09)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 客观存在的诸多不确定性因素，使得工程系统的规划和设计不可避免地存在着风险。通过运用结构可靠度计算的优化算法，将工程结构的风险率计算转化为对结构可靠指标的计算，给出了基于可靠性理论的决策分析方法和两个算例，算例1以挡土墙设计为例，阐述了决策分析方法的有效性和实用性。算例2对南水北调中线工程穿黄方案的选择问题，给出了一个简单的决策模式。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险决策 可靠度 损失 南水北调工程 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-7598-(2004)08-1297-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2003-02-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-02-05 |
Preliminary research on engineering decision-making based on reliability theory and risk analysis |
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| LIU Ning,JIA Chao,CHEN Jin. Preliminary research on engineering decision-making based on reliability theory and risk analysis[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2004, 25(8): 1297-1301 |
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| Authors: | LIU Ning JIA Chao CHEN Jin |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Civil engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2.Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan, Hubei 430010, China |
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| Abstract: | Many uncertainties caused unavoidable risk in engineering planning and engineering decision. The paper shows how to calculate the risk rate through reliability index, and provides decision-making method based on reliability theory. Two examples are given in the paper. As example one a retaining wall design is performed to show the method’s efficiency and practicality. How to choose the best case between aqueduct and tunnel in South-North Water Transfer Project of Middle Route is explained in example two and the simple decision mode is described. |
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| Keywords: | risk decision reliability loss South-North Water Transfer Project |
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