用冰川区水量(物质)平衡模型估计气候变化对冰川水资源影响的初步研究

本文提出了一个水量(物质)平衡模型,估计可能的气候变化对冰川区水文的影响。以天山北坡乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川为例,假设温度升高1—4℃和相应的降水量变化为0,±10%,±20%组合成二十种气候变化情景进行计算。结果表明:目前的冰川融水量(R_i)是处在冰川退缩阶段的高值期,假设的二十种气候情景下的R_i均小于此值。因此,未来全球气候变暖,将会导致我国西北高寒山区以冰川融水补给为主的河川径流量逐渐减少。

The Application of Water (Mass) Balance Model in Glacierized Area to Assessing the Climate Impact on Glacial Water Resources

A water (mass) balance model is suggested, which can be used to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of plausible climatic changes in glacierized area.Taking an example of Glacier No.1,Headwaters of Urumqi River on the northern slop of Tianshan Mts., hypothetical twenty climatic change scenarios are discussed,which are combinations of temperature incrcase from 1-4℃ with precipitation change of 0, ±10% and ±20%. The results show that the present runoff yielded in the glacierized area is the maximum during the period of glacial retreat, higher than that among the twenty hypothetical scenarios. Therefore the runoff of the rivers fed by glaciers in the cold high mountains in Northwest China would decrease gradually as the global climate becomes wanner.