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????IGS????120??E???1999??2009??IONEX?????????????????????TEC?????????????С?????鷽??????????????????????????????????????TEC?????????????2009???TEC?????????????顣????????????????????????????????????TEC??仯?????????????????????Ч?????????????????????????????TEC?????????????????4.441 0??2.915 1 TECU??????????????23.26%??10.78%????????????????????????0.712 2??0.785 9??

PREDICTION OF PEAK IONOSPHERIC TOTAL ELECTRON CONTENT OF EQUATORIAL IONIZATION ANOMALY BASED ON PARTIAL LEAST SQUARE REGRESSION

On the basis of the 1999—2009 IONEX format total electron content (TEC) data over 120°E from IGS, the method of Partial Least Square Regression is used to establish the prediction model of EIA(equatorial ionization anomaly) index. The TEC data from 1999 to 2008 were used to fit the prediction model and the all year TEC data of 2009 was used to test the model. The results of the forecasting experimentations of the model show that this model can accurately describe the variation of EIA index Inc (TEC of north crest) and Isc (TEC of south crest), but the prediction effect of Inc is better than the Isc. The mean absolute error of Isc and Inc is about 4.4410TECU and 2.915 1 TECU, the mean relative error of Isc and Inc is about 23.26% and 10.78%. The correlation coefficient between the actual values and predicted values of Isc and Inc is 0.712 2 and 0.785 9 respectively.