| 松嫩辽流域夏季面雨量预测因子探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈丽娟,张培群,赵振国.松嫩辽流域夏季面雨量预测因子探讨[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(5):663-669. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈丽娟 张培群 赵振国 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”攻关加强课题96-908-06-3，中国气象局预测减灾课题“七大江河流域汛期降水预报的研究”共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用松花江、嫩江、辽河流域50余年45站降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料, 分析了松嫩辽流域夏季面雨量的气候特征和影响夏季面雨量异常的前期因子, 提出了一种利用前期11～12月北半球环流异常特征对该流域夏季旱涝趋势定性预测的方案, 方案中定义了两个反映中高纬环流异常的指数, 可以较好地分辨和预测松嫩辽流域面雨量异常。
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| 关 键 词： | 松嫩辽流域 面雨量 环流异常 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2003-02-19 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-05-24 |
An Approach to a Prognostic Factor of Basin Rainfall in Summer over the Songhuajiang-nenjiang-liaohe Valleys |
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| Chen Lijuan,Zhang Peiqun,Zhao Zhenguo.An Approach to a Prognostic Factor of Basin Rainfall in Summer over the Songhuajiang-nenjiang-liaohe Valleys[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2005,16(5):663-669. |
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| Authors: | Chen Lijuan Zhang Peiqun Zhao Zhenguo |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, Beijing1000292.Laboratory for Climate S tudies, National Climate Center, CMA, Beijing1000813.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing100039 |
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| Abstract: | By use of 45-station rainfall from the Songhuajiang,Nenjiang and Liaohe(SNL) river valleys and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis,study is made of the climate features of the summer basin rainfall over the valleys and the forerunner relative to the anomaly,proposing a qualitative prediction scheme for a flood or drought trend based on the Northern Hemisphere circulation anomaly in the previous November and December.The scheme introduces two indices for the anomaly of extratropical circulations,with which to satisfactorily discern and predict the singularities of the basin precipitation in summer. |
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| Keywords: | Songhuajiang-nenjiang-liaohe river valleys Basin rainfall Anomaly of circulation Prediction |
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