地震学方法预报效能的统计与分析中短期前兆及预报效能评价之四

对地震学一部分预报方法进行回顾性预报和实际地震预报的效能评价验算, 前者可反映预报方法可能具有的最好效果, 后者则反映现实预报的状况和水平。 回顾性预报的效能评价表明几种方法都能通过检验, 是有效的。 而实际地震预报效能验算的结果是, 通不过检验: 无论是有震预报, 还是无震预报, 在15％置信水平下所有的方法都通不过检验。

Statistics and analysis of prediction efficiency of seismological methods--Part 4 of mid-short-term precursor and prediction efficiency evaluation

The article makes retrospect prediction of some prediction methods based on seismology and checking computation of efficiency evaluation of real earthquake prediction. The former may reflect the best potential effect of prediction methods, and the latter shows status and level of real earthquake prediction. Efficiency evaluation of retrospect prediction shows that several methods pass the test and are efficient. Checking computation of real earthquake prediction efficiency cannot pass the test, i.e. whether the prediction with earthquake occurrence and prediction without earthquake occurrence, all methods have not past the test on the confidence level of 15 per cent.