高路堤沉降变形预测模型研究

以某高等级公路高69 m路堤的沉降资料为研究样本，采用经修正了的非匀速填土和非等步长沉降观测时间的 GM（1，1）灰色理论预测模型进行高路堤工后最终沉降量预测，与等比级数曲线模型预测结果对比，认为这两种预测模型都能很好地预测高路堤工后最终沉降量，且灰色预测模型较等比级数曲线预测模型能更好地反映高路堤不均匀沉降趋势。同时认为考虑了沉降观测时间非等步长性和路堤填土速度不均匀性的灰色预测模型，其预测结果更符合高路堤沉降变形趋势，可进一步的研究、推广和应用。

Study of settlement deformation prediction model of high embankment

Taking settlement data of 69m high embankment of an expressway as research sample,using GM(1,1) grey model which has been amended by heterogeneous fill and non-equal step settlement prediction time,and compared with the prediction results of growth curve model,it is demonstrated that these two models can predict the final settlement of high embankment better;and the grey prediction model is better predictable the non-homogeneous deformation of high embankment than the growth curve prediction model.Simultaneously,it is recognized that the prediction results of this grey model are better tallied with the settlement deformation tendency of high embankment,and can do the next work of researching,popularizing and utilization.