Palaeolimnological validation of estimated reference values for a lake profundal macroinvertebrate metric (Benthic Quality Index) |
| |
Authors: | Jussi Jyväsjärvi Jukka Nyblom Heikki Hämäläinen |
| |
Institution: | 1.Department of Biological and Environmental Science,University of Jyv?skyl?,Jyv?skyl?,Finland;2.Department of Mathematics and Statistics,University of Jyv?skyl?,Jyv?skyl?,Finland |
| |
Abstract: | Modern assessment and monitoring of aquatic ecosystems is increasingly based on biota and the “reference condition” approach,
in which the observed values (O) of biological variables are compared to those expected in the absence of human disturbance (E). To use this approach, correct estimation and validation of reference conditions are critical. Because appropriate modern
or historical data are never available for this approach, palaeolimnological data offer an alternative. We used a calibration
data set from 73 profundal sites in semi-pristine Finnish lakes to construct a regression model for estimating expected values
for the chironomid Benthic Quality Index (BQI)—a macroinvertebrate metric widely used in bioassessment—from environmental
variables that are insensitive to human disturbance. For comparison, reference values were estimated using the European legislative
rationale based on a priori lake typology. Performance of the alternative approaches was assessed by internal ‘leave-one-out’
cross-validation using the calibration set and by external cross-validation using independent palaeolimnological data on BQI
values representing the historical pristine status of 24 lake basins. Additionally, for 19 of these sites, which vary in their
degree of human impact, the ratio of present BQI to that in pristine condition, which shows the degree of actual change, if
any, was calculated from palaeolimnological data and compared with the O/E ratios based on the present chironomid data and estimated E. A linear regression model with mean depth and mean/maximum depth ratio as independent variables estimated the reference
values of BQI much closer to the observed ones (r
2 = 0.58, RMSEP = 0.65 and r
2 = 0.71 RMSEP = 0.55; for internal and external cross-validation, respectively) than did the typology approach (r
2 = 0.28, RMSEP = 0.86; r
2 = 0.10, RMSEP = 0.97). The regression approach also yielded O/E ratios more similar to the actual ones (r
2 = 0.79, RMSEP = 0.09) than did the typology approach (r
2 = 0.62, RMSEP = 0.23). Our results strongly support the use of lake morphometric variables and modelling instead of categorical
lake typology for the establishment of reference conditions for profundal macroinvertebrate communities and demonstrate the
utility of palaeolimnological data in the validation of reference values and assessment methods. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|