日照地区风暴潮增水重现值计算

为给政府、规划、设计部门决策提供参考，采用组合分布法对日照地区风暴潮增水的重现值进行了计算。提出了以台风发生强烈的季节和月份进行统计抽样统计的替代方法，简化了工程设计初期的数据处理工作量；并给出了适用于日照地区风暴潮增水的分布模式。与传统的年极值法和过阈法相比，该方法考虑了风暴潮增水的季节变化，物理意义更趋明确。

Return Values Calculation of Storm Surge Elevation in Rizhao Area

In order to provide decision-making reference for governmental departments, and planning and design departments, the Combined Distribution Method is utilized to calculate the return values of storm surge elevation in the Rizhao area. Compared with both the annual maximum method and the peak over threshold method, the proposed method can reflect the influence of seasonal variation on extreme storm surge prediction. The results show reasonable fitting to the measured data. Because the most severely occurred storm surges are caused by typhoons in the Rizhao area, this paper studies the feasibility of estimating the return values of storm surges sampled from dominant seasons or months rather than from all the year around for practical engineering design. The appropriate distribution model is also given for long-term stochastic analysis of extreme storm surges in the Rizhao area.