北冰洋公海渔业权益争端的博弈分析——基于环北极国家视角

北冰洋公海尚处于冰封状态,但气候变暖、海冰加速融化使未来公海出现新渔场成为可能,其战略价值因而得到国际关注。当前,环北极国家已率先展开渔业权益争夺。为分析北冰洋公海渔业事务的国际走势,文章基于博弈论思想,构建非对称懦夫博弈模型及古诺模型来模拟和探究环北极国家在渔业利益争夺中的合作或冲突行为,研究得出:现阶段北冰洋公海渔业权益争端主要表现为渔业管理权的争夺,在该博弈中,非北冰洋沿岸国采取退让策略,沿岸国采取进攻策略,可以达到进化稳定均衡;一旦公海具备捕鱼条件,争端将演化为开发模式选择的博弈,此时,北冰洋沿岸国采取合作开发策略可以有效保护公海渔业资源,并实现国家的长期利益。

Game Analysis on the Disputes of Fisheries Rights and Interests in the Arctic Ocean: Based on the perspective of the Arctic countries

The open sea of the Arctic Ocean is still in a frozen state,but the warming climate and the accelerated melting of sea ice make it possible to create new fisheries in the open sea in the future,and its strategic value has received international attention.At present,the Arctic countries have taken the lead in launching competition for fisheries rights.In order to analyze the international trend of the Arctic Ocean′s high seas fishery affairs,this paper built an asymmetric cowardly game model and Cournot model to simulate and explore the cooperation or conflict behavior of the Arctic countries in the competition of fishery interests based on game theory.The disputes over the high seas fisheries rights in the Arctic Ocean are mainly manifested in the competition for fisheries management rights.In this game,the non-Arctic Ocean coastal countries adopt a concession strategy,and the coastal countries adopt an offensive strategy to achieve a stable and balanced evolution.Once the high seas have fishing conditions,the dispute will evolve into the game of development mode selection.At this time,the coastal development countries adopt cooperative development strategies to effectively protect the high seas fishery resources and realize the long-term interests of the country.