Anomalous variations of the geomagnetic field in East Fergana — magnetic precursor of the May earthquake with M= 7.0 (1978 November 2)

Summary. A secular variation anomaly has been discovered at the north-east part of the Fergana vdey by repeated measurements every year or less. The change of total field Δ F at the 'magnetic epicentre' was 9 nT in 1977 and 16 nT in 1978 relative to the level of 1973. In 1977 an anomalous region was recognized, where according to the data from 25 observation points Δ F increased in the northern part up to 5.2 nT, and decreased by 4.7nTin the southern part according to a further 22 points. Permanent observations were begun at the epicentre in 1978 October. We normally observed variations of Δ F differences with magnitude ± 2–3 nT, which were not correlated with worldwide magnetic activity. Anomalous variations appeared on October 26 and rose to a maximum value of + 23 nT on October 30. The decrease of this anomalous field began on October 31. This made it possible to predict a potential earthquake. The Alay earthquake with M = 7.0 occurred on November 2 six hours after the prediction was issued; Δ F then returned to the initial level. Thus, using the geomagnetic field variations in the Fergana region, geophysicists were able to predict the moment of a strong earthquake.