广州金沙洲岩溶地面塌陷灾害预警预报研究

受武广客运专线金沙洲隧道施工抽排大量地下水的影响， 2007—2012年广州金沙洲发生了大规模岩溶地面塌陷、地面沉降地质灾害，造成了重大经济损失。为防治地质灾害，采用综合地质调查、地下水位监测、地面沉降监测、物探、钻探和试验等手段勘查和研究，建立了完善的地下水位和地面沉降监测网络。在此基础上，根据地质环境条件、岩溶发育程度和地质灾害分布特征进行岩溶塌陷易发性分区，选择地下水位变化量和地面沉降量这两个与岩溶塌陷最直接、最敏感和最重要的参数，从预警预报参数选择、时间尺度选取、判据分析计算、预警预报方法、模型系统的建立等方面进行研究，选取临界日综合地下水位变化量和临界日综合地面沉降量作为预警预报判据，结合三维地质结构模型建立岩溶塌陷预警预报模型系统。成功地预警预报了两起岩溶地面塌陷，取得较好的预报效果，说明该岩溶地面塌陷预警预报模型系统实用、有效，为金沙洲防灾减灾提供地质科学依据，为当地的社会稳定和经济可持续发展提供技术支撑。

A Study of Warning and Forecasting of Karst Collapse Geological Disaster in Jinshazhou of Guangzhou

Influenced by the pumping of groundwater in Jinshazhou tunnel of Wuhan to Guangzhou High speed Railway, some large scale karst collapses and ground subsidences had happened in Jinshazhou of Guangzhou during July 2007 to May 2012, causing serious damages on the economy. For preventing geological disasters, this study used methods such as general geological survey,groundwater monitoring, ground subsidence monitoring, drilling survey, physical detection to build a perfect groundwater and subsidence monitoring system. Based on that, according to the geological environment condition, the situation of karst development and distribution characteristics of geological disasters, the susceptibility of karst collapse of Jinshazhou was zoned.The variable quantity of underground water level and monitoring data of land subsidence which were the most directly sensitive and important parameters were utilized to study on how to select forecast parameters and time scales, to calculate discriminating parameters, to build forecasting method and forecasting model system. Combined with the 3D geological structure model, the comprehensive variable quantity of underground water level and the comprehensive land subsidence on critical day were selected as the discriminating parameter for predicting karst collapse to establish a warning and forecasting model system.This system was success fully employed to forecast two of karst collapses and achieved good results.It is revealed that the system for warning and forecasting karst collapses is useful and efficient and can provide anti disaster science suggestions for Jinshazhou and technical supports for the local social stability and economic development.