The unlikely independence of Northern Italy

The past fifty years have seen several elements and factors leading to the current homogenization of Italian society: the internal migration from South to North, the development of a more and more industrial and affluent society, the increase of links with Europe/World culture and economy. Nevertheless in the last decade in Northern Italy emerged the political phenomenon of autonomist parties, in particular the most successful of them: the Lega Nord. This success happened in parallel with the loss of power by traditional government parties, also as a consequence of the trial against corruption held in Milan at the beginning of the '90. Italian politics is in turmoil and it is impossible to forecast the duration or even its end. The problem is to determine the most significant elements, and which factors have the greatest effect on the current reality, also to be able to venture a prediction regarding trends. The paper suggests some ethno-nationalism evaluation criteria, useful to assess the more or less successful geopolitical dynamics where there are separatist claims. According with those criteria the Northern Italian political situation has been briefly described and evaluated, with particular attention to electoral results of the Lega Nord party. These results show a well defined geographical distribution and hence the minority condition in the North of the separatist supporters. The actual political debate in Italy has the aim to change some parts of the Constitution in the sense of federalism; it can be a sufficient reply to secessionist claims and it can make the independence of Northern Italy unlikely.