晋中秋白菜生长后期冻害天气预报研究及对策

依据秋白菜冻害发生前不同的天气条件,将冻害分为干冷型和湿冷型2种类型,并针对秋白菜的生理特点及对气象观测资料的研究,归纳出2型的冻害气象指标。在反查了大量的历史天气图基础上,选取08时天气图上某一范围作为预报关键区,建立了2型冻害的72h、48h、24h各预报时效的进型条件、起报条件和消空指标,综合组成了秋白菜的冻害预报系统。在1992年～1999年的试报中,各预报时效准确率平均达86%,取得了较满意得效果。

Countermeasure and study of frozen disaster in the anaphase of autumn cabbage Jinzhong in Jinzhong City

Based on the different weather condition before the frozen disaster of autumn cabbage, the frozen disaster has been divided into two types, and the meteorology indices has been generated based on the study of the character of autumn cabbage and the meteorology data. After the review of historical weather map, some area on the weather map at 08 has been chosen as the key region for prediction. Prediction system has been established for the two frozen disaster types. In the testing prediction during 1992- 1999, the accuracy approached 86% .