Use of formation pressure test results over a hydrate interval for long-term production forecasting at the Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well, Alaska North Slope: Implications of uncertainties |
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Authors: | Mehran Pooladi-Darvish Huifang Hong |
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Institution: | Fekete Associates Inc., University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada |
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Abstract: | In the first part of this paper, the pressure and temperature measurements obtained using Schlumberger's Modular Formation Dynamics Tester (MDT) conducted on the C2 interval in the BPXA-DOE-USGS Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well (Mount Elbert Well) are history matched, with the following three objectives: (i) to obtain a better understanding of hydrate decomposition and its reformation as conditions cross the p/T stability, (ii) to obtain formation properties (e.g., permeability) that are consistent with the measurements, and (iii) to explore the non-uniqueness in the history match; i.e., to explore the ranges of parameters that allow a reasonable match of the measured quantities. In the second part of this paper, long-term production performance is predicted, and the effect of the uncertain parameters on the predictions is demonstrated. The results are used to demonstrate the range of long-term production that may be expected, when a model is calibrated using the MDT data. Usefulness of short-term tests for long-term forecast prediction is then discussed. |
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Keywords: | Hydrate MDT test History matching Forecast Uncertainty assessment |
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