应用非线性振荡理论研究云南局地气温的演变规律

将描述局地气温变化的非线性振荡方程应用到云南省17个测站局地气温演变研究中，根据各测站1958年1月—2000年12月逐旬气温距平资料和反演理论获得具体描述各测站局地气温变化的非线性振荡方程。以经典非线性振荡理论为依据，研究了云南省17个测站的局地气温演变规律。结果表明，云南局地气温系统是弱的非线性系统；其演变的固有周期大致在6～10旬之间；在无外源强迫的条件下，云南局地气温振幅随时间增加总是衰减；考虑外源强迫的作用后，云南局地气温系统在其演变过程中只随外源强迫的振荡而振荡。应用反演获得的描述各测站局地气温变化的有外源强迫非线性振荡方程做出未来云南局地气温演变趋势预报，其平均预报准确率约为78．9％。说明该模型具有良好的预报能力和预报稳定性。

Applying Nonlinear Oscillation Theory to Evolution Law of Yunnan Local Temperature

The nonlinear oscillation equations describing local temperature were applied to study the evolution law of local temperature at 17 stations in Yunnan, the specific equation was obtained from the retrieving theory and the each ten day temperature departure data during January 1958 to December 2000. According to the classical nonlinear oscillation theory, the temperature evolution law at 17 stations in Yunnan was studied. The results indicate that the local land-air system in Yunnan is weak nonlinear system, and its inherent period is from 60 to 100 days. Under no external forcing condition, the local temperature amplitude of Yunnan always decreases with time. Under external forcing condition, the local temperature amplitude of Yunnan oscillates with the oscillation of the external forcing. The future local temperature evolution patterns in yunnan were forecasted by the retrieved nonlinear oscillation equations, and its average forecasting accuracy is 78.9%, which indicate that the equations have better forecasting ability and stability.