RURAL/URBAN LAND CONVERSION III: A TECHNICAL NOTE ON LEADING INDICATORS OF URBAN LAND DEVELOPMENT

Because land often experiences a number of ownership changes before it is absorbed by a growing city, we hypothesize that land-market activity can be used to indicate urban growth pressure before land-use conversion occurs. The utility of a number of landmarket variables is evaluated by comparing their means across zones in the urbanlrural fringe. The study, in two central Canadian cities, spans a 10-year period. The analysis shows significant differences in some land-market activity measures that demonstrate increased activity in the land converted to built-up urban uses. Such leading indicators should provide a means of evaluating the effectiveness of land-use policies earlier than the measurement of land-use change.