| Abstract: | Casual observations suggest that saguaro populations are densest in southeastern Arizona, although data have not been collected and no study has been done to address this topic. In addition, the topic of reproductive density has similarly never been addressed. Saguaro reproductive output is directly related to the number of adult individuals and the number of branches in the area. Thirty saguaro populations over their U.S. range were sampled to consider two variables: population density and reproductive stem density. Stepwise regression using climate and vegetation (e.g., availability of nurse plants) to predict density yielded tree + Ambrosia cover and maximum July precipitation. Nurse cover, however, is also influenced by summer rain. The partial correlation results suggest that high saguaro densities are linked with high quality nurse cover (i.e., not Larrea tridentata) in addition to summer rainfall. Total cover and mean annual precipitation are the best predictors of reproductive stem density. Mean annual precipitation may be a good predictor of reproductive stem density, because population density is linked with summer rain while branching is linked with winter rain. The plots were also divided into climatic regions. One-way ANOVA shows that the northeast (high winter precipitation) and west (dry) have lower saguaro densities than the southeast (high summer precipitation), while the northeast and southeast both have very high reproductive stem densities relative to the west. The warmer west is less susceptible to periodic freezing mortality, while previous work has shown that the southeast generally regenerates more successfully. Thus in the colder northeast, which is also outside of the primary summer rain and best nurse plant belt, low density populations seem to be maintained only with high reproductive density. |
