RTL时间扫描方法在福建及近海地区的回顾检验

“区域-时间-长度算法”是一种检测地震活动水平相对变化的计算方法，利用该算法对福建及邻近海域近年来4次MD5．0以上地震进行回顾性检验。结果认为，每个震例的研究起始时间要根据每个地震的犞RTL背景活动水平来定，震前4个震例的均方差都超过3．5σ，3个震例的犞RTL极大值超过150，一个只有21．6。说明该地区MD 5．0以上地震前，犞RTL活动水平相对于背景活动水平有明显变化，犞RTL可作为该地区地震预报的一项指标。

Review and test of RTL time scan method in Fujian and its off shore area

Region-time-length algorithm （RTL）is a computation method for detecting relative change of earthquake activity level.Using this method,four earthquakes （MD≥ 5. 0）that occurred in Fujian and its offshore area for the past few years have been tested retrospective in this paper.The result shows that,research starting time of every earthquake is determined by itsVRTL background activity level,respectively.The mean square errors of the four earthquakes have all passed 3. 5σbefore shock.TheVRTL maximum values of three earthquakes have passed 150,and one has 21.6 only.This illustrates thatVRTL activity level have all marked variation relative to background activity level beforeMD 5. 0 earthquakes in this area.VRTL may be a index of earthquake prediction in this area.