论动力相似预报的物理基础问题

为了更好地发展动力相似预报的策略和方法，基于非线性动力学成果，综合探讨了动力相似预报的物理基础问题。分析表明，“相似预报—低频流型—可预报性”在物理上存在密切联系，这在统计相似预报和动力相似预报问题中均适用。通过类比集合预报，并对实际大气不同尺度模式预报的个例分析，初步证实了相似初值对应的动力预报结果及其预报误差行为具有相似性。在此基础上，进一步提出三类相似性问题，并归纳了动力相似预报的物理基础：在初始状态相似性持续的情况下，动力预报结果以及预报误差行为具有相似性。

Physical Basis of Dynamical Analogue Prediction

In order to further develop the strategy and methodology of Dynamical Analogue Prediction (DAP), the physical basis problem associated with the DAP is primarily investigated in the present study based on previous nonlinear dynamical achievements. Firstly, the relationship of “analogue prediction low frequency flow regimes―predictability” is fully discussed. Analyses show that such a relationship is not only suitable for statistical analogue prediction, but also for dynamical analogue prediction. Furthermore, by contrasting with initial ensemble forecast and conducting case analyses of dynamical predictions on different time scales in real atmosphere, it is primarily documented that there exists evident analogy between dynamical prediction results and their situations of prediction errors when initial values are analogical to each other. Moreover, three classes of analogy problems are further summarized and the physical basis of dynamical analogue prediction is induced: Under the circumstance that the analogy at initial states is durative, not only dynamical prediction results but also their situations of prediction errors will be analogical to each other.