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The activity of Vesuvius in the next millennium
Authors:Antonino Palumbo
Affiliation:1. Knoxville, TN 37922-3108, U.S.A;2. Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, U.S.A;1. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy;2. Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences, Theresienstr. 41, 80333 Munich, Germany;3. Laboratoire GéoSciences Réunion, Université de la Réunion, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Sorbonne Paris-Cité, CNRS UMR 7154, 15 Avenue René Cassin, CS 92003, 97744 Saint-Denis, La Réunion, France;4. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, Piazza Roma 2, 95125 Catania, Italy;5. Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra Jaume Almera-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ICTJA-CSIC), C/Lluís Solé i Sabarís s/n, 08028 Barcelona, Spain;6. Department of Marine Geosciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA;7. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Ugo La Malfa, 153, 90146 Palermo, Italy;8. Eni Angola, Avenida Lenine 58, Luanda, Angola;9. Observatoire Volcanologique du Piton de la Fournaise, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Univ. Paris Diderot, CNRS UMR 7154, F-97418 La Plaine des Cafres, La Réunion, France;1. Department of Geology, University of Otago, 360 Leith Walk, Dunedin, Otago 9054, New Zealand;2. Geological Survey of Canada, 601 Booth Street, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0E8, Canada;1. DISTEM Department University of Palermo, Via Archirafi, 22, 90123 Palermo, Italy;2. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Palermo, Via U. La Malfa, 153, 90146 Palermo, Italy;3. Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris 6 Institut des Sciences de la Terre 4, place Jussieu, F75005 Paris, France;4. SAF Department, University of Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 13, 90128 Palermo, Italy;5. Sidercem S.R.L. Via L. Grassi, 7 – 93100 Caltanissetta, Italy;1. Institute of Geosciences, Christian-Albrechts University Kiel, Otto-Hahn-Platz 1, 24118 Kiel, Germany;2. Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, Lofos Nymfon 1, 11810 Athens, Greece;3. Institute of Geophysics, University of Hamburg, Bundesstr. 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany;4. Department of Terrestrial Magnetism Carnegie Institution for Science, 5241 Broad Branch Road, NW Washington, DC 20015, United States of America
Abstract:The time distribution of the historical eruptions of Vesuvius allows the forecasting of the activity of the volcano for the next millennium according to three independent models. The next event with volcanic explosivity index (VEI)=4 is likely to occur during the next few decades followed by a decreasing number of smaller eruptions in the successive few centuries and by a very long period of quiescence up to the beginning of the following fourth millennium when the next Plinian event (VEI=5) might occur.
Keywords:Vesuvius   very long-term forecasting   volcanic eruptions
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