| 2002年7月23日南黄海北部MS4.9地震的预测实践及反思 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋海昆,侯海峰. 2002年7月23日南黄海北部MS4.9地震的预测实践及反思[J]. 内陆地震, 2003, 17(2): 101-108 |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋海昆 侯海峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东省地震局,山东,济南,250014 |
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| 基金项目： | 地震科学联合基金(102037)的部分成果(国家"十五"科技攻关计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 依据震前资料,对2002年7月23日南黄海北部Ms4．9地震的年度预测过程进行简要回顾,对关键预测依据进行初步讨论。研究结果表明,在南黄海地区,地震活动图像在同一区域的集中演化及3级地震的丛集活动对未来地震发生地点的判别具有指示意义;该区5级以上地震活动时间结构的分析(活跃时段划分及其对比、准周期活动特征等)对年度预测的时间判断起到了关键作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预报 活跃时段 平均时间间隔 活动图像演化 3级地震丛集 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-8956(2003)02-0101-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002-10-30 |
PRACTICE AND REFLECTION ON THE PREDICTION OF MS=4.9 EARTHQUAKE IN THE NORTH OF SOUTH YELLOW SEA ON JULY 23,2002 |
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| JIANG Hai-kun,HOU Hai-feng. PRACTICE AND REFLECTION ON THE PREDICTION OF MS=4.9 EARTHQUAKE IN THE NORTH OF SOUTH YELLOW SEA ON JULY 23,2002[J]. Inland Earthquake, 2003, 17(2): 101-108 |
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| Authors: | JIANG Hai-kun HOU Hai-feng |
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| Abstract: | The prediction process of the M-S4.9 earthquake in the north of south Yellow Sea on July 23, 2002 was reviewed briefly based on the pre-earthquake data, and the key prediction criteria were analyzed. The result shows that the continued development of special seismicity patterns in the same region and the concentrated earthquake cluster activities are helpful for the judgment of the earthquake occurrence location, and the analyses on earthquake activity time, including seismic period and episode dividing as well as quasi-period seismicity analysis, play an important role in time determination of 2002 earthquake prediction. |
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| Keywords: | Earthquake prediction Active period Average time interval Activity pattern development Magnitude 3 earthquake swarm |
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