近50 年海河流域径流的变化趋势研究

该文用Mann-Kendall方法对近50年海河流域山区20个子流域的径流及降水的变化趋势进行了显著性检验, 结合降水, 径流及气温的年代距平值的同步分析以及径流对气候变化的敏感性研究结果, 对近50年海河流域径流的变化趋势, 提出了一个半定量分析的研究思路和方法。提出影响径流变化的三种类型:以气候暖干化为主, 人类活动为辅的径流显著衰减型;以人类活动为主, 气候暖干化为辅的径流显著衰减型;人类活动与气候变异都不明显, 径流无显著变化的类型。分析结果展示了气候、人类活动与水之间的相互作用。这种相互作用, 给径流的变化趋势分析和成因分析带来了复杂性与困难, 也给气候变化对水资源的影响研究提出了挑战。

Study of Trends in Runoff for the Haihe River Basin in Recent 50 Years

Mann Kendall's test was used to identify runoff trends for 20 sub catchments located in the mountain area of the Haihe river basin in recent 50 years. Combining the in phase analysis of the decadal changes of precipitation, runoff and air temperature, and the sensitivity analysis of runoff to climate change, a semi quantitative analysis approach was presented. By using this analysis method, the change trend and the attribution of natural runoff for the Haihe river basin can be summarized into three patterns: 1) Annual natural runoff has decreased significantly, of which the main factor is the dry and warming trend of the climate and the secondary is the anthropogenic activities; 2) Annual natural runoff has decreased significantly, of which the main factor is the anthropogenic activities and the secondary is dry and warming climate trend; 3) Annual natural runoff has no significant change trend, for the climatic variability and anthropogenic activities are not significant. This study reflects the interaction between climate, human activities and water. The mutual interaction causes complexities and difficulties to analye the change trend and attribution of runoff, and presents challenge to the impact study of climate change to water resources as well.