首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      


Response surfaces of vulnerability to climate change: the Colorado River Basin,the High Plains,and California
Authors:Romano Foti  Jorge A Ramirez  Thomas C Brown
Institution:1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
3. Rocky Mountain Research Station, U. S. Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO, USA
Abstract:We quantify the vulnerability of water supply to shortage for the Colorado River Basin and basins of the High Plains and California and assess the sensitivity of their water supply system to future changes in the statistical variability of supply and demand. We do so for current conditions and future socio-economic scenarios within a probabilistic framework that incorporates the inherent uncertainties in the drivers of vulnerability. Our analysis indicates that the most sensitive basins to both current and future variability of demand and supply are the Central California and the San Joaquin-Tulare basins. Large sensitivity is also found for the Kansas basin of the High Plains. Within the Colorado River Basin, the Lower Colorado and Gila were found to be the most vulnerable and sensitive sub-basins. By accounting for future uncertainty within the above probabilistic framework, this study unveils and isolates the individual responses of a given basin to changes in the statistical properties of demand and supply and offers a valuable tool for the identification of policy strategies and adaptation measures.
Keywords:
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录!
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号