Atmospheric circulation as a factor for air temperatures in Bulgaria

The research period is 1950–2012, and includes data for air temperatures in 21 Bulgarian stations. Two circulation indices, covering the same period and showing west–east or south–north directions of transport of air masses, were calculated. Statistical methods were used in the study. The results show a significant positive trend in average annual air temperatures in almost the entire territory of Bulgaria with the exception of its eastern-northeastern part. The warming occurs mainly in March, June and July, with some stations having significant positive values also in January, May and August. The zonal index reveals an insignificant increase of western transport of air masses in the cold half of the year (October–April) and strengthening of the eastern transport in the rest of the year. The meridional index shows an increase of the northern transport of air masses over the entire year and this is particularly visible in March, June, August and September. Correlation coefficients indicate that atmospheric circulation has leading role in determination of air temperatures during the period from November to April. Western transport of air masses leads to higher temperatures in spring, autumn and winter and to lower temperatures in summer. The influence of ENSO on atmospheric circulation over Bulgaria is weak, with a time lag of 2 months. El Niño is associated with increased western and northern transport of air masses, while La Niña is associated with increased eastern and southern transport of air masses over southeastern Europe.